MLB Power Rankings: FanGraphs Analysis (March 27 - April 6)

Marta Kowalska

4 min read

Post on Apr 23, 2025

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Top 5 Teams Based on FanGraphs WAR and Projected Wins

Using FanGraphs' comprehensive WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and projected win totals, we can begin to see which teams are emerging as early season favorites. These rankings reflect a snapshot in time and are subject to change as the season progresses. Below are the top 5 teams as of April 6th:

• Atlanta Braves: WAR: 15.2, Projected Wins: 92, Key Players: Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Spencer Strider. Strengths: Powerful offense, dominant starting pitching. Weaknesses: Bullpen consistency still needs improvement based on early season data.
• Los Angeles Dodgers: WAR: 14.8, Projected Wins: 95, Key Players: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw. Strengths: Deep lineup, experienced pitching staff. Weaknesses: Injury concerns remain a potential factor.
• New York Yankees: WAR: 14.1, Projected Wins: 90, Key Players: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole. Strengths: Power hitting, ace-caliber starting pitcher. Weaknesses: Early season inconsistencies in the lineup.
• Houston Astros: WAR: 13.7, Projected Wins: 88, Key Players: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Justin Verlander. Strengths: Strong batting average, effective pitching rotation. Weaknesses: Dependence on key players' health and performance.
• San Diego Padres: WAR: 13.3, Projected Wins: 87, Key Players: Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Joe Musgrove. Strengths: Star-studded lineup, improved pitching depth. Weaknesses: Consistency in their offensive production.

Biggest Surprises and Underperformers

While some teams are performing as expected, others have surprised with their early-season performances. Let's look at some of the biggest surprises and underperformers based on pre-season FanGraphs projections:

• Texas Rangers: Expected performance: Mid-pack contender. Actual performance: Top of the AL West. Reasons: Unexpected offensive explosion, strong starting pitching exceeding expectations. Their wRC+ is significantly higher than projected.
• Chicago Cubs: Expected performance: Moderate improvement. Actual performance: Struggling offensively. Reasons: Underperformance from key hitters impacting their overall batting average and wRC+. Their FIP is also higher than expected, indicating struggles in pitching.
• Boston Red Sox: Expected performance: Playoff contender. Actual performance: Below expectations. Reasons: Inconsistent hitting and starting pitching struggles resulting in a lower than projected WAR.

Key Statistical Indicators from FanGraphs

Understanding the key metrics used in this analysis is crucial for interpreting the data. FanGraphs utilizes several advanced statistics:

• wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus): This metric measures a hitter's total offensive value compared to the league average (100). A wRC+ of 150 indicates the hitter is 50% better than average.
• FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): FIP attempts to measure a pitcher's performance based solely on factors within their control (walks, strikeouts, home runs). It removes the influence of defense.
• WAR (Wins Above Replacement): This is a comprehensive statistic that measures a player's overall contribution compared to a replacement-level player. It is broken down into components like Offensive WAR (oWAR) and Defensive WAR (dWAR).

Looking Ahead: Predictions for the Next Two Weeks

Based on current FanGraphs data, we can make some predictions for the next two weeks:

• Prediction for top 3 teams after the next two weeks: The Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees are likely to remain at the top, though their order might shift slightly depending on key matchups. The continued high WAR of their key players suggests strong performance.
• Predictions for teams that might rise or fall significantly: The Texas Rangers’ hot start might cool slightly, while the Boston Red Sox could see improvement if their pitching finds consistency. Watch for changes in their wRC+ and FIP stats to confirm these trends.

Conclusion

This FanGraphs analysis of MLB power rankings (March 27th - April 6th) highlights the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and New York Yankees as early season leaders, based on strong WAR, projected wins, and key player performances. However, early surprises like the Texas Rangers and underperformers like the Chicago Cubs show the volatility of the early season. Understanding key FanGraphs metrics like wRC+, FIP, and WAR provides valuable insight into team performance. Stay tuned for our next MLB Power Rankings update based on FanGraphs analysis! We'll continue to track the evolving landscape of the MLB season and provide you with insightful data-driven rankings to help you stay informed. Keep checking back for more in-depth MLB Power Rankings analysis!